Economically, the long and short of it Fashion by Suzy Menkes I I .1 '.. i C Is the return of the shorl skirt the best economic news Mrs Thatcher has had this summer? Her own skirts may hover acceptably on the knee, bul Britain has taken the mini to its legs with an enthusiasm not seen since the 1960s - our last period of economic boom. The idea that the stock market rises and falls with the hemline can be charted quite precisely this century. Up above the knee went the skirts of the "roaring" 1920s, ankle deep in the Depression, up with the war effort; down with the New Look, thigh- high in the expansionist 1960s and down to maxi levels in the oil war of the 1970s. Exactly the same peaks and troughs can be traced on the Dow Jones Industrial Average in America as were seen in Britain and the rest of Western Europe. What is new this decade is the divergence of fashion styles (and economic per- formance) from one country to another. Although fashion could now be expected to be totally international, its acceptability in the different countries is not. In Britain this summer (economic outlook uncer- tain), high fashion skirts are being worn very short (the ra-ra) or very long (the prairie). Both styles come from America, yet in New York itself, the longer prairie skirt, alongside slim and sober knee length skirts, are most in evidence. The talk there is of major recession. In Paris there is not a prairie skirt to be seen. The South of France and the clubs are alive with minis, with a short, tight skirt strongly tipped for autumn. Their economic pol- icy is agressively expansio- nist. * In Italy, inflation and hemlines are well up. There is a lack of financial restraint and a disordered economy. In the fashion world, clothes are exceptionally soft, body- wrappin& and unstructured, which gives Italian designer collections a completely different look from the rest of Europe. Japan's steady economy seems to be retlected in an unswerving hemline across the knees in Tokyo. The same applies in Germany. Did the seven world leaders at the Versailles summit realize that their women's hemlines are such a telling economic indicator? Was President Reagan's trip to Britain really a fact-finding mission on the mini? And dia anyone else notice that Nancy's pleated skirt was a good two inches longer than the Queen's? According to Bob Beckman of the Investor's Bulletin, the hemline indicator of econ- omics is not as silly as it sounds. The theory that loucheness in female dress is indicative of prosperity can be taken back to the Dark Ages of fashion history, if you equate exposure of the leg with the swelling bosom versus the concealing neck- line. The graph goes from gloomy straight-laced Puri- tans (dress and economy) to dashing, expansive Resto- ration period. No wonder that bankers so relish the metaphor of the economic "corset". With - my knowledge of what the international de- signers have in store for us for autumn, I asked Bob Beckman to analyse the economic situation of the countries on the fashion show circuit. His predictions were alarmingly accurate mirrors of the clothes I have seen. For America he sees a slide into the trough of their worst recession since the De- pression. The directional American designers uniquely and to a woman showed a mid-calf long slim skirt with a tailored jacket, a neat parallel with 1930's fashions. "France is looking for hyper-inflation. They are in what I would call an excita- bility period when you might expect to see some licentious fashions to go with an undisciplined financial situa- tion", says Mr Beckman. I quote from my own report on the Paris collec- tions on April 2 this year: "the strongest and sexiest Paris for 20 years ... changing the shape of fashion with a short slim skirt ... the sexiest thrust of all ... flattering to the female body .. ." This was the season that the House of Chanel showed "a spicy collection that included see- through chiffon blouses under the famous little suits." Mr Beckman was not surprised to see fashion difterences mirror the diver- gencies in global economies with looseness of financial controls meaning freer, sexier clothes. He says that the dividing line in the world between conservative and non-conservative economies is bound to be reflected in those countries' clothes, with the steady. economies of Japan and Germany likely to show the most. conservative hemlines. And what about Britain?: Mr Beckman does not see the flirty hemlines currently on: our city streets as signs of good.times ahead. The ra-ra skirt, he says, is the end of a fashion cycle which marks: the end of the "secondary prosperity" phase. It is likely: to lead to the resurrection: of the downwave and a: "secondary depression". In my preview of the: autumn fashion shows by: London designers on March 23 this year I wrote: "London - designers are speaking with a: surprisingly unified* voice about hemlines which are generally mid-calf." In two weeks' time, London: will hold a special summer: showing at the KensinRton Exhibition Centre of the high: fashion looks for autumn and winter from the young mass market designers (from June 29-30). In spite of the phenomenal: success this summer of the ra-ra mini they are almost entirely showing the long mid-calf hemline. And yet, and yet ... every, woman I speak to is wearing, f or longs to wear, a shorter skirt again. Give us half a' chance and we will raise our* w.inter hemlines at least a little above the recession' depths that designers are predicting. Come on women of Britain!' The economic fate of the' nation hangs on us. Photographs 1 920's-50's from. BBC Hulton Picture Library This summer's ra-ra skirt by Mary Quant . Economically, the long and short of it