Tory landslide win at Ashfield overthrows 23,000 Labour majority The Conservatives won the by- election at Ashfield, Nottingham, early today where Labour held a mountainous majority of nearly 23,000 in the general election of October 1974. At Grimsby Labour held onto the late Mr Anthony Crosland's seat by a majority of 520. The two results produced no pattern, our Political Editor writes, and indeed, no sense. There needs to be a good deal of research before anyone can explain what has happened. Grimsby held by 520 votes Bv David Wood . Pnlitio:ll Prl;t- In two astonishing by-election results announced early today Labour held on by a majority of 520 votes in Grimsby, wvhere it was widely expected to lose, and lost the mining and textiles constituency in Ashfield, Not- tingliam, lvhere it had a moun- tainous majority of nearly 23,000 in the general election of October 1974. The. Ashfield result was T. Smith (C) 19,616 M. Cowan- (Lab) 19,352 H. Flint (L) 4,380 G. Herro.d (Nat Frortt) 1,734 Mrs J. Hall (Soc Wkrs) 453 Cons. majority 264 Genieral election D I. Marquand (Lab) 35.367 ; R. N. Kemm (C) 12,452 ; l. C. Flint (L) 7,959. Lab majority: 22,915. The Grimsby result was: A. Mitchell (Lab) 21,890 R. Blair (C) 21,370 A. De Freitas (L) 3,128 M. Stanton (Soc Workers) 215 P. H. H. Bishop (Sunlshine) 64 M. Nottingham (Malcolm Muggeridge Fan Club) 30 Lab majority 520 General election: C. A. R. Cros- land (Lab) 21,657 ; K. C. Brown (C) 14,675 ; D. M. Rigby (L) 9,487 ; J. McElrea (Ind Dem Lab) 166. Lab majority: 6,982. ASHFIELD 1977 Oct 1974 Change Lab 42.5% 63.4% '20.9% Cons 43.1% 22.3% -20.6% Li, 9.6M% 14.30% -4.7% Nat Front 3.8% - - Soc Workdrs 1.0?% - Poll 59.7% 74.7% -15.0% Electorate 76,193 74,701 ?1,492 All candidates lose their deposits except Cons and Lab. - GRIMSBY 1977 Oct 1974 Change Lab 46.9% 47.1%'o -0.2%.' Conso 45.7% 31.9% +13.8% Lib 6.7% 20.6% -13.9% Others 0.7% 0.4 0% +0.3% Poll 69.8% 69.3% +0.5%,1o Electorate 66,881 66,302 +579 All candidates except Lab and Corns lost their deposits. The twvo results produced no pattern, and. indeed .no..seosje._ 1n Grinisby 'fter twN"o -recounts, a good Labour candidate in Mr Austin Mitchell, managed to hold the seat that the Rite Mr Anthony Crosland, the former Foreign Secretary, took over as a marginal in 1959. In Ashfield, Mr Tinmothy Smith, the Conser- vative candidate, just squeezed 'nsme in a seat that was among the safest Labour possessions in England. Most political scientists and observers, including myself. had expected precisely the op- posite results. It has t-o be assumed that the issues in both by-elections were the same: the ccst of living, high unemployment, high taxa- tion. 13ut Grimsby camne down. narrowly in the Governmentfs fav~our, and As.hfiel'd, wshich h1as given complete loyalty to *Labou.r almrost for a lifetiime, decided that the Governrnent needed to be reproved. for its fai,ures. There has been no sw%%ing in a by-election since the general election of 1974 to compare with the swiing of 20.8 per cent ia Aslfield except that in Wal- sall, North, wvhere th,ere were the special circumstances involv- ing Mr John Stonehouse. the sitting Labour candidate. It is fruitless at a moment's notice to speculate on the circumstances in which the. safe Labour seat was lost and the doaubtful Labour seat wvas held. There needs to be a good'deal of research iilto the twvo by- elections before anybody can explain with confidence whxat has happened. But in the end, as was expected, the two main parties finish with equal bonours. Both have held or won one seat, and a11 the h-igh satisfaction that Labour leaders and party mana- gers were showring early today, as the news came through that Mr Mitchell was ahead in Grimsby, was laid waste when the astonishing Ashfield result was announced. The chief message is that the English electorate is highly volatile at t;he moment, with the advantage lying with the Con- servative opposition. After all, Mr Mitchell's victory hias to be set against the fact that Mr Crosland in October, 1974, had a majority of 6,982 votes. There- fo.re, there has been a direct change on the evidence of a large body of Liberal votes to the Labour candidate. In Ash- field, the Government w%as really Mr Austitt Mitchell: 'Over the moon'. dismissed by some of its most solid suppolters. Since the general election in October 1974 the Labour gov. emnment has now lost five seats to the Conservatives: Green- wich, Wooluich West; Working- ton; Walsall, North; Birming- ham Stechford; and now AWsield. Ashfield "disaster": Referring to the Grimsby result, Mr Ron- ald Hayward, general secretary of the Labour Party, said: " From the beginning of this campaign I have said a majority of wie would be a victory for Labour. I still say this, especi; ally ipi a situation where every pundit predicted a sizable ToTy win." (the Press Associatibn reports). But he added: "The Ashfield result is a disaster." The Ashfield victor Mr Timothy Sniuth, described the resul:t as a remarkable victory for Mrs Thatcher and her Con- servative policies. The Conser- vatives had secured an unprecedented increase in their vote of nearly 60 Ber cent by a cam;paign based cn positive alternative policies on prnces, taxes and other issues. At Grimsby Mr Mitchell, a Yorkshiremiian, said after his victory: "The people of Grimsby have said that this government should carry on. I am absolutely over the moon. " I was certain E was going to lose, especially when I heard the ITN opinion poll ", he said. "It was said that the Liberal vote had collapsed and I thought those votes vould go to the Tories. I cannot believe it but this has given a great boost to the Government." When told of the Ashfield result, Mrs Thatcher said: " This is one of the greatest by-election victories for all time. In both bv-elections ve: had excollggt candidates and fought first-lass campaigns." Lotd Thoreycroft, chairman of the Conservative Party, said: "To have captured Ashifield, a seat with one of the largest Latbour majorities in the counI- try, is a tremendous blow to an already discredited govern. ment. The results in both by- elections clearly demonstrate the continuing disenchantment of the British people with the Government's performance over the past three years. "As foor the Liberals, their po-or showing indicates that by joining forces with Labour at Westminster they have suc- ceeded only in sharing the blame for Labour's mishandling of the nation's affmirs." Tory landslide win at Ashfield overthrows 23,000 Labournmajority